What does Robert Knight, MBA predict for the stock markets for the week starting November 6, 2023? This report covers these stock indices: $DJIA, $DJTA, $FAS, $GUSH, $IWM, $LABU, $NDX, $NUGT, $SMH, $SPX, and Technical Indicators. Note: Paying members receive this report and much more. Get a free TurboTrading 1-Week Trial, or become a paid TurboTrading Member to receive the Stocks to Watch List. Here's the free sample:
Indices to Watch November 6, 2023
SPX: Massive short squeeze when economic numbers came out this week and 10-year US Treasuries fell to 4.65% from 5%. The market rallied 6.4% in 5 days. It is back up over its 200 dma and up against lateral resistance around 436. Markets are currently over-bought and most likely we get a pullback before an extension into a Santa Claus rally for the end of the year. Support 430, 435 and 420.
NDX: The index surged 7.8% in 6 days trading off its 200 dma to the top of the down trending channel. 15300 next resistance. But, I would expect a pullback as markets are extremely overbought. Consolidation at this level to build internal energy should then allow a year-end rally to take the index back near ATHs.
DJIA: Huge bullish reversal for the Dow after it made a 5-wave move to the downside. It is back over its 200 dma with a 6% surge from the lows. Key resistance around 34300. It needs to hold 33700 for the chart to remain bullish.
DJTA: The transportation index bounced off key support at 13500 after a massive 19.25% selloff from the July high. The 50 ema has crossed down through the 200 dma and the index is well below the 200 dma. Resistance 14600 and 14800. The transportation index has not confirmed the Dow's move.
IWM: The Russell 2000 ETF made a nominal new 52-week low but then reversed and surged 8% in 3 days. It is coming up against resistance at $180 and the 200 dma around $182. Over all the ETF remains in an 18-month consolidation pattern. Over $200 would be a strong break out of the pattern and a strong bullish sign for markets.
FAS: The financial sector ETF bounced off a triple bottom ($49) to resistance at $61. It is mid-channel in a range between $49 and $74. It is hemmed in by a large declining tops line and a down-trending 200 dma. It needs to get over $74 to show a continuation to the upside. For now, it is range-bound.
LABU: After dropping 41% when it broke down out of the 18-month consolidation pattern the biotech ETF had a 4-day bounce. It will find major resistance at $4.10. Currently, it needs to test $3.75 (lateral resistance, declining tops line and 50 ema). Chart remains bearish. Expect a reverse stock split, I would think, before the end of the year.
SMH: The semiconductor ETF bounced of lateral support at the key level of $136 and is back over its 200 dma. It surged 3 days with markets and now at the declining tops line. A break over $152 should take the ETF to test ATH by year-end.
GUSH: The oil stock ETF is mid-range between $35 and $41. Oil has backed off from nearly $100 to $80 yet the ETF is holding up. Any upward movement in the price of oil should send GUSH significantly higher. A break below $34 would be bearish. For now, it remains range-bound and could go either way.
NUGT: The gold miner ETF is forming a reverse head and shoulders pattern with the neckline around $34. Bullion has made a big reversal trading back to $2000 yet the ETF has not really responded to that move. The chart is neutral. Below $28 is bearish over $34 bullish.
Technical Indicators: In a span of 2 weeks the markets went from over-sold to over-bought. 51.64% of stocks are above their 40 dma and the McClellan Oscillator sits at 164.82. VIX plummeted from 22 to 14.91. So for the mega-caps there is no fear in the market. But as the broader market approaches key resistance it may not have the internal energy to push through. Markets need to consolidate at this level to rebuild the energy needed to take it to the next level.
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