Indices to Watch September 11, 2023
On Monday, September 11, 2023, the New York Stock Exchange will start active trading for the week. Robert Knight, Head Trader at Turbo Trading, discusses the major stock indices: $DJIA, $DJTA, $FAS, $GUSH, $IWM, $LABU, $NDX, $NUGT, $SMH, $SPX, and Technical Indicators. Note: Paying members receive this report and much more. Get a free TurboTrading 1-Week Trial, or become a paid TurboTrading Member to receive the Stocks to Watch List. Here's the free sample:
Indices to Watch September 11, 2023
SPX: The index made a strong 1st wave move up to 4600 and then a wave 2, 3 wave corrective to the down side, It held support around 4350 and moved back up to 4550 resistance before retracing to 4450 support. Failure below 4335 would be very negative for markets, It needs to get through 4600 to show continuation. So it is mid range and could go either way right now. But I think it is the start of wave 3 that should take the index to 4700 on the next move.
NDX: After making a 5 wave move up in wave 1 the index pulled back in wave 2 to the rising channel line. Much below 15000 would negate the trend and be negative for markets. Over 16000 and wave 3 takes the index to 16600 and maybe 17000.
DJIA: After making an 8 month reverse H&S pattern the index traded up to lateral resistance around 36000. It pull back to support around 34300 and held. It is in a rising channel now. Much below 34000 or 33700 would be very negative for markets. Resistance at 35000 and 36000.
DJTA: The transportation index traded to resistance around 16700 and pulled back to support around 15200. Next levels of support 15000 and 14700. Below those levels would be negative for markets as a non-conformation move by the index. Resistance at 16000 and 16700. Over 17000 would confirm a big bull market.
IWM: The broader market ETF remains in a consolidation pattern (14 month) with a trading range between $170 and $200. It did test $200in late July and pulled back to the 200 dma support around $183. It would be bullish if it held $180. Below that and it could trade down to $170 and $163. It really needs to get over $200 to show a major shift in direction of the broader market.
FAS: The financial sector ETF continues to coil. It probably needs another 3 weeks before it shows a direction for the sector. It is under its 200 dma around $69. Over $74.50 would be very bullish. Much under $61 and it could come back to test $57 and $53.
LABU: The biotech ETF remains in a down trending channel just finishing wave 4 to the top of the channel. Look for wave 5 to take it down to $4.25. Failure there (triple bottom) would be very negative for the sector. Chart remains bearish.
SMH: The semiconductor ETF made a huge move from the October 2022 lows to trade to new ATHs in July (double top). It did pull back to testy and hold key support at $143. But a break below $143 would be very negative for markets as that is the neck line of a H&S pattern. If it holds the trend line then we should see the ETF trade to new ATHs before year end.
GUSH: With the continued strength in the price of oil, the oil stocks are in a strong rising channel in a bullish pattern. $45 and $49 next targets. Support at $40 and $37.
NUGT: The strength of the $USD continues to weigh heavy on the price of gold. As such, the gold miners remain in a bearish downward trending channel. Support $28.85 and $27. Below those levels and it tests $22. Chart remains bearish.
Technical indicators: Only 30.3% of stocks are above their 40 dma and the McClellan Oscillator sits at -39.64. The broader market is under pressure but the megacaps continue to exhibit no fear in the markets. VIX sits at 13.84. There is a down side bias on the short term but the markets may not have the energy to trade through key support. Markets most likely need to consolidate for another week or 2 before continuing their march higher into the year end.
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